Like many Midwestern cities, Cleveland has faced its share of population shifts. Residents leave for opportunities elsewhere, seeking different climates or simply changing scenery. While appraising properties in northeast Ohio, I’ve noted that population growth has been relatively weak. Things are improving, but slowly, as demonstrated in this charge from CoStar.
A recent Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland study sheds light on a fascinating trend called “boomerang migration.” This phenomenon, where former residents return to their hometown, is more prevalent in Cleveland than many might think, and it has implications for our local housing market.
What is Boomerang Migration?
The Cleveland Fed’s research defines boomerang migration as the return of individuals to their original metropolitan area after living elsewhere. It’s not just a sentimental pull; it’s a complex interplay of economic, social, and personal factors.
Cleveland’s Boomerang Rate: Higher Than You Think
The data reveals that Cleveland–Elyria, OH, has a boomerang rate of 32.0, surpassing the national average. This means a significant portion of those who leave Cleveland eventually find their way back, which is an important factor to consider when analyzing population trends within our area.
Why Are People Returning?
While the research doesn’t pinpoint exact reasons for each individual, we can speculate on some key drivers:
- Affordability: Compared to major metropolitan areas, Cleveland offers a more affordable cost of living, particularly in housing. This can be a significant draw for those seeking to settle down or raise a family.
- Family and Social Ties: Strong family connections and established social networks often pull people back to their roots.
- Improved Job Market: While Cleveland has faced economic challenges, there are pockets of growth and revitalization, attracting professionals in specific sectors.
- Familiarity and Community: Returning to a familiar place can bring comfort and a sense of belonging.
Of course, I think it’s safe to say people are not moving back because of the weather! That being said, we don’t have hurricanes, significant forest fires, many tornadoes, or earthquakes yet, so that’s not nothing!
Impact on the Cleveland Housing Market
The boomerang effect has several potential impacts on our local housing market:
- Increased Demand in Specific Neighborhoods
Returning residents, often called “boomerangers,” typically gravitate toward revitalized urban neighborhoods like Tremont, Ohio City, and downtown areas. These returnees usually have higher incomes than when they initially left Cleveland, creating demand for renovated housing stock and new developments. This concentrated demand has increased home values and rents in these desirable areas.
- Gentrification Pressures
The influx of higher-earning returnees has accelerated gentrification in specific neighborhoods. Long-time residents may face displacement as property values increase and rental costs rise. This is particularly evident in historically affordable areas that have become trendy destinations for young professionals returning to the city.
- Adaptive Reuse and Development
Boomerang migration has spurred adaptive reuse projects, converting former industrial buildings into lofts and condominiums. Developers have responded to returnees’ preferences for urban living with walkable amenities, leading to increased investment in mixed-use developments and historic preservation projects.
- Geographic Selectivity
Unlike broader population growth, boomerang migration tends to be geographically selective within Cleveland. While certain neighborhoods experience increased housing demand and investment, other areas may not benefit from this trend, potentially widening disparities between different parts of the city.
- Policy Responses
The city has implemented various programs to attract former residents, including down payment assistance and tax incentives, which indirectly influence housing development patterns and affordability initiatives.
The overall impact remains complex, creating opportunities for neighborhood revitalization and housing affordability and equity challenges.
I do think it’s important to remember that while Cleveland has a high boomerang rate, it doesn’t automatically translate to overall population growth. The city still faces challenges related to out-migration. However, the return of former residents is a positive trend that contributes to the economic stability of our local communities.
What Does This Mean for Appraisers?
For residential appraisers analyzing Cleveland’s market, boomerang migration creates several important considerations that directly impact valuation methodology and market analysis:
- Comparable Sales Challenges
Appraisers must carefully evaluate recent sales data, as boomerang migration can create rapid shifts in neighborhood dynamics that make older comparables less reliable. Properties that sold even 12-18 months ago may not reflect current market conditions in areas experiencing influxes of returning residents. This requires appraisers to weigh more recent sales more heavily and potentially expand their search radius for truly comparable properties.
- Neighborhood Transition Analysis
Appraisers must identify whether a property is in a neighborhood experiencing boomerang migration effects. This requires analyzing demographic shifts, new business openings, infrastructure investments, and development patterns. Properties in transitioning areas may have different appreciation trajectories than historical data suggests.
- Highest and Best Use Considerations
In areas attracting boomerangers, appraisers must evaluate whether existing housing stock represents the highest and best use. For example, a single-family home in Ohio City might have redevelopment potential for higher-density housing or mixed-use development, affecting its valuation approach.
- Market Segmentation
Boomerang migration often creates distinct market segments within the same geographic area. Appraisers must identify which segment a subject property serves—existing long-term residents or returning professionals—as these groups have different price tolerances and feature preferences.
- Forward-Looking Market Indicators
Traditional appraisal relies heavily on historical data, but boomerang migration requires appraisers to consider leading indicators like planned developments, infrastructure improvements, and local economic initiatives that might attract more returnees. This affects both current valuations and market condition assessments.
- Rental Market Impacts
For income-producing properties, appraisers must analyze how boomerang migration affects rental rates and vacancy patterns, as returning residents often rent initially before purchasing.
This trend requires appraisers to be more dynamic in their market analysis and less reliant on historical precedent.
One resource is the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s research, which provides a valuable framework for understanding the complexities of population shifts in our region. By staying informed, we can better serve our clients and contribute to a more accurate understanding of the Cleveland housing market.
And now onto some housing information from Lorain County, which has experienced higher population growth in recent years, compared to other counties in Northeast Ohio…
LORAIN COUNTY HOUSING TRENDS
Here are some fresh stats for single-family homes in Lorain County from last month. Here are the key points from the data below:
- The median sales price in April 2025 was $261,300, which increased by approximately 8% year over year and is still trending higher.
- There is just over one month of single-family inventory on the market.
- Median list prices in April of 2025 are $310,000.
- On average, selling a home in April 2025 took 14 days.
It’s still a seller’s market!
SOME THINGS TO MAKE YOU SMILE
Since we’re on a boomerang topic this week, check out these sweet trick shots!
If you’re camping this weekend, here are some tips for you!
LOCAL STUFF
I enjoyed some articles about the Greater Cleveland area. I like sharing these things with you and hope you enjoy them too. Just click on the article to be sent to that article.
102 Days & Nights of Summer Fun in Ohio – Ohio Magazine
CMNH turns up the volume with a combination of Pink Floyd and live piano experiences – Freshwater Cleveland
21 Things to Do for Memorial Day Weekend in Cleveland – Cleveland Magazine
Visit 7 Ohio Nature Preserves – Ohio Magazine
MORE BLOGS I RECOMMEND
If you enjoyed my blog, you might also enjoy some of my friends’ and colleagues’ blogs! Click their links below to check them out!
APPRAISAL TODAY by Ann O’Rourke
Housing Notes by Jonathan Miller
Sacramento Appraisal Blog by Ryan Lundquist
Real Value Blog and Podcast by Blaine Feyen
The Analogue Blog by George Dell
The Appraiser Coach Blog by Dustin Harris
Birmingham Appraisal Blog by Tom Horn
Thanks for being here! I hope you found something in this post that benefited you!
Have a great long weekend!
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* Some parts of this post were created using AI tools, with final edits, and opinions by me.